Lessons in weather

[FS]

Today I travelled from KISP to KLVL, KRZZ, KCPC, KFLO, and finally landing at KCAE for the night. Not all of that was straight lines between points, either. I had intended to get to KPDK, but the weather forecast didn't hold. This is the first time I really got to put the XM weather to the test, and I learned a few things:

a) All the technology and science being applied to modern weather forecasts are a complete waste of effort. I have yet to see how the 24 hour forecast from this morning holds, but the 12 hour forecast has been completely off.

b) When taking a long cross-country trip, zoom way out on the moving map. I had about a 20 mile radius showing on the map when I first spotted greens and yellows on my route. Once I zoomed out to about 50 miles there was green, yellow, red. Zoom out some more and lightning was being displayed. Had I spotted that happening earlier I could have started my detour earlier as well.

c) When there's 8 or 10 miles of visibility in heavy haze, you can have a hard time figuring out what the weather is doing by looking out the windows.

d) There were big gaps between storm areas, and the METARs were showing VFR in there. Given some of the things I've heard from others about dancing between cells I chose to stay away. There were plenty of red areas lined up on my purple line (purple is the color the moving map displays the route line to my destination) and zig-zagging between them probably wouldn't have yielded much progress anyway. Going around everything, despite the enormous off-track diversion, is a conservative solution that worked well enough for me today.

e) If you ever had any doubts about the value of XM, one trip like this will change your mind. I don't make very many long cross-country trips but, wow, this is a great tool to have available.

 

[sfaret]

Re: Lessons in weather

Hard/impossible VFR is easy IFR.
You'll learn that too.

You can still deviate as necessary, except in NY.

 

[aaaprod]

Re: Lessons in weather

All the above comments are accurate. I made comments on the board about diverting around CB's. I don't mind flying through clouds but do not like build up and figure a few extra minutes flying around convective weather is safe flying. My thread is in the training section with a misspelled title "Cumbulonimus Fear". One more thing for those of us that fly in the eastern half of the country, try and get your flying done in the morning hours during summer before the air starts percolating.

 

[dgeib]

Re: Lessons in weather

XM weather definitely one of the best deals out there. I usually flight plan with the AOPA flight planner. It brings up your route and shows the wx and winds along the way for a long range snap shot. While flying I'm usually on the 20nm scale but the strike finder is on the 100nm scale. If I see something on it I will look for it on the Garmin. I keep an eye on the update times as ocassionally the nexrad will go into a funk and not update for awhile. If there is big stuff out in front I like the storm cell mode as it gives direction of travel of the cell and lets you plan your course of action well in advance. Even with all the good technology, I too plan my summer trips for the AM as late afternoon gets iffy most places in the southeast.

 

[N4843W]

Re: Lessons in weather

If you have a split screen unit (I use Voyager 4 on a Fujitsu Laptop) and there is WX out there, I put one screen on 20 and one on 100 or 150. I have found that very helpful. Closer in, the 20 screen is set to auto-zoom and the other screen goes to an approach plate. I thought this was just a whiz-bang feature at first, but now I find it invaluable. On touchdown, screen goes to airport diagram -- all geo-synched with your position. cool stuff.

But beware, XM is usually 5-15 min delayed, can be as much as 25-30 minutes behind on Nexrad. Those of us who have used it for several years now can testify. Be VERY careful using it for anything you'd call "tactical." It is tempting, and I have cut it closer than I should have a couple of tiimes and learned. ADS-B is going to solve that and according the the Seattle Avionics folks, it is coming sooner than later. It is so far superior, they say, they almost hate for people to buy an XM box.

 

[JBunn]

Re: Lessons in weather

While ADS-B will provide nexrad images, there may still be a little latency that is inherent. Not the the extent that is sometimes seen on XM but some. There is a way to tell way the latency is on the Garmin portables using XM by looking at the status page and at the bottom of the wx display. ADS-B will also not provide you with the info that is present now with the Aviator subscription of XM WX. Winds aloft, freezing levels, lightening data and some others will not be available with ADS-B.

 

[wab003]

Re: Lessons in weather

I usually find display screens in the 15 - 20 NM range not as useful in the enroute phase. Good for departure and pre-approach segments but 50 - 100 NM (or greater) I find much more helpful in staying abreast of wx trends and for strategy development. Being able to view the XM METAR boxes some distance out, you can watch conditions improve or deteriorate for areas and get a good overall "flick" instead of trying to piece together a mental picture from a dozen individual reports. Start w/ the forest and drill down to tree level as needed. Was invaluable going/coming from the far west.

 

[Dave]

Re: Lessons in weather

Doug,

I just noticed you fly out of Fernandina Beach. I did some training down there recently when I was flying out of Craig (CRG)

Nice little airport you have there (runways galore)

 

[Dave]

Re: Lessons in weather

Frank,

Had a lesson myself today.

Peer pressure and Get-There-Itis overcome.

I went to pick up the plane after annual today. Friend of mine drove me out and while enroute I started noticing the clouds falling just a bit. So I watched and waited as we drove.

He's a VFR pilot of quite a few years, and said if you have to you can always scud run (only had a 10 minute flight) at 1000 feet. Besides your Instrument Rated now.

So he dropped me off, I pre-flighted with every intention of going (ceiling was still at 2800 scattered 4400 Bkn). Finished pre-flight, call to check the weather on a 10 minute flight - just because things were beginning to change, and got the usual "VFR not Recommended" (words were a little more stern than that)

Now I just finished up my Instrument rating, had a friend drop me off, had an appointment for my Eddy Current inspection at the next airport and wanted to get home. Everything was telling me to just go (plus I didn't want to be a coward)

All but one - SENSE

I kept thinking am I trying to make this because of one or all of the above, or would I be better served to wait for better weather before making the trip (mind you plane is IFR equipped, but not the best of equipment)

So I called and cancelled my appointment, pushed the plane back in the hangar until now Monday, called my friend from 15 miles out to turn around and pick me up, had all of the maintenance people wondering what I was doing (skies were still clear but changing rapidly about 2 miles to the West - moving East)

So for about 5 minutes I looked like the biggest Wussie (no better wod describes it) in the world...

But 5 minutes after that, I looked like the smartest pilot in the world for not going. We got rocked, T-Storms up to 50K and growing, winds which were non existant began blowing something fierce, and the airport I was to fly to got socked in.

I made the right call, in the face of the enemy (Thyne own EGO)

Lesson learned, and learned the right way.

 

[N4843W]

Re: Lessons in weather

Been there when I made that decision ... good for you. Also a couple of times when I should have. I had outs and I used them ... wrong direction from my path ... but got me on the ground safe. Always have an option.

 

[Steve]

Re: Lessons in weather

Dave,
One rule from flying all over the world is that you never second guess your weather decision. If you made it, it's the right call and you are always the brightest pilot out there. If you are alive to question yourself, you made the right call--that's what Pilot in Command is really all about. Now, stop questioning yourself and continue to develope and listen to your sixth sense.

 

[Lonnie Steverson]

Re: Lessons in weather

Hell Dave you should have just went. When in doubt 2 shot glasses full of Grey Goose and rest of cup in RED BULL. Na just kidding. When it comes to weather flying its always best to not second guess your gut feeling. Its always best to be on the ground wishing you were in the air instead of in the air wishing you were on the ground. My father died in airplane doing what he loved but he passed out due to medications. I feel like when I fly he is always with me and I don't want to disappoint him by making a stupid decision. I don't want to be the one they talk about at the AOPA safety foundation about my dumb decision and show how being a lousy pilot got me killed. I always strive to be the very best pilot and professional pilot which means to know your limits and your equipment limits. Don't be a puss and be afraid to say no I wont go because it could cost you your life and dignity by killing yourself. Just not worth it. Sorry for the blunt explanation but that's how serious weather flying is.